Delitos de cuello blanco en Paraguay: Evidencias empíricas y predicción

Andreas Schneider

Resumen


Este artículo contribuye a la literatura de delitos de cuello blanco y a sensibilizar a la Fiscalía General, Poder Judicial, Ministerio de Justicia y Defensoría analizando estos delitos con un único set de datos mensuales agregados. La serie temporal incluye incidentes desde 2000 a 2018. Además, se presenta un modelo ARIMA para modelar el proceso de generación de datos con la intención de predecir el siguiente año en la serie. Los hallazgos muestran que el crimen de cuello blanco ha aumentado más del 236% y el índice subió a 830 puntos, respectivamente, con un pico en el 2015. El fraude y la lesión de confianza contribuyen a más del 91% del total de los incidentes. Una predicción para el 2019 indica un incremento de 11,15% en comparación con el año anterior. 

Palabras clave


Delitos de cuello blanco, Paraguay, Modelos ARIMA, predicción

Texto completo:

PDF-DESCARGA

Referencias


Agnew, R. (1992). Foundation for a general strain theory of crime and delinquency. Criminology, 30(1), 47-87.

Agnew, R. (2001). Building on the foundation of general strain theory: Specifying the types of strain most likely to lead to crime and delinquency. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 38 (4), 319-361.

Akaike, H. (1973). Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle. En B. N. Petrov y F. Csaki (Eds.), Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Information Theory (pp. 267-281). Budapest: Akademiai Kiado.

Akerlof, G. A. y Romer, P. M. (1993). Looting: The economic underworld of bankruptcy for Profit. En W. Brainard y G. Perry (Eds.), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2 (1-73).

Association of Certified Fraud Examiners (2018). Report to the nations on occupational fraud and abuse. Retrieved from https://www.acfe.com/rttn2018/docs/2018-report-to-the nations.pdf.

Auriol, E., Straub, S. y Flochel, T. (2016). Public Procurement and rent-seeking: The case of Paraguay. World Development, 77, 395-407.

Barassi, M. R. y Zhou. Y. (2012). The effect of corruption on FDI: A parametric and non-parametric analysis. European Journal of Political Economy, 28(3), 302-312. doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2012.01.001.

Black, W. K. (2010). Wall St. fraud and fiduciary responsibilities: Can jail time serves as an adequate deterrent for willful violations? Testimony of William K. Black before the U.S. Senate, Committee on the judiciary, Subcommittee on Crime and Drugs, Retrieved from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract.id=1607045.

Blickle, G., Schlegel, A., Fassbender, P. y Klein, U. (2006). Some personality correlates of business white-collar crime. Applied Psychology: An International Review, 55(2), 220-233.

Box, G. E. P. y Pierce, D. A. (1970). Distribution of residual autocorrelations in autoregressive integrated moving average time series models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 65(332), 1509-1526. Doi: 10.1080%2F01621459.1970.10481180.

Bramness, J. G., Walby, F. A., Morken, G. y Roislien, J. (2015). Analyzing seasonal variations in suicide with Fourier Poisson time-series regression: A registry-based study from Norway, 1969-2007. American Journal of Epidemiology, 182(3), 244-254. doi:10.1093/aje/kwv064.

Brody, R. G. y Kiehl, K. A. (2010). From white-collar crime to red-collar crime. Journal of Financial Crime, 17(3), 351-364. Doi: 10.1108/13590791011056318.

Bucy, P. H., Formby, E. P., Raspanti, M. S. y Rooney, K. E. (2008). Why do they do it? The Motives, mores, and character of white-collar criminals. St. Johns Law Review, 82(2), 401-572.

Burnham, K. P. y Anderson, D. R. (2004). Multimodel inference: Understanding AIC and BIC in model selection. Sociological Methods Research, 33, 261-304. Doi: 10.1177/0049124104268644.

Cassel, E. y Bernstein, D. A. (2015). Criminal Behavior. 2nd Edition. London and New York: Routledge.

Corcoran, K. E., Robbins, B. y Pettinicchio, D. (2012). Religion and the acceptability of white-collar crime: A cross-national analysis. Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, 51(3), 542-567.

Detotto, C. y Otranto, E. (2010). Does crime effect economic growth? Kyklos, 63(3), 330-345. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-6435.2010.00477.x.

Dickey, D. A. y Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distributions of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431.

Dickey, D. A. y Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.

Durkheim, E. (1982). En Steven Lukes (Ed.), The Rules of Sociological Method. New York: The Free Press.

Durlauf, S. N., Navarro, S. y Rivers, D. A. (2008). On the Interpretation of Aggregate Crime Regressions. En A. Goldberger y R. Rosenfeld (Eds.), Crime Trends. Washington DC: National Academy of Sciences Press.

Ehrlich, I. (1973). Participation in illegitimate activities: A theoretical and empirical investigation. The Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), 521-565.

Ehrlich, I. (1996). Crime, punishment and the market of offenses. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10(1), 43-67.

Friedrichs, D. O. (2010). Trusted criminals. White-collar crime in contemporary society. Fourth Edition. Belmont: Wadsworth Cengage Learning.

Ganzini, L., McFarland, B. y Bloom, J. (1990). Victims of fraud: Comparing victims of white-collar crime and violent crime. The Bulletin of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law, 18(1), 55–63.

Guillén, S. (2011). Crisis financiera internacional. Observatorio de Economía Internacional, 1-7.

Javorcik, B. S. y Wei, S. J. (2009). Corruption and cross border investment in emerging markets: Firm-level evidence. Journal of International Money and Finance, 28, 605-624.

Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P. y Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root. How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178.

Ljung, G. M. y Box, G. E. P. (1978). On a measure of lack of fit in time series models. Biometrika, 65(2), 297-303.

Malone, M. F. T. (2010). The verdict is in: The impact of crime on public trust in Central American justice systems. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 2(3), 99-128.

Mauro, P. (1995). Corruption and Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(3), 681-712.

McGurrin, D., Jarrell, M., Jahn, A. y Cochrane, B. (2013). White-collar crime representation in the Criminology Literature Revisited, 2001-2010. Western Criminology Review, 14(2),3-19.

Newman, D. J. (1958). White-collar crime. Law and Contemporary Problems, 23(4), 735-753.

O’Brien, C. (2017). Can pre-employment tests identify white-collar criminals and reduce fraud risk in your organization? Journal of Forensic and Investigative Accounting, 9(1), 621- 636.

Payne, B. K. (2016). White-collar crime: the essentials. 2nd Edition. Singapore: Thousand Oaks: SAGE.

Pridmore, S. y Reddy, A. (2012). Financial loss and suicide. The Malaysian Journal of Medical Sciences, 19(2), 74–76.

Schneider, A. (2018). Are their collars still white? White-collar crime: Evidence from Paraguay 2000-2016. Innovative Issues and Approaches in Social Sciences 11(2), 116 137. DOI:10.12959/issn.1855-0541.IIASS-2018-no2-art7.

Schneider, A. (2019). Deterrence Theory in Paraguay: Exploring fraud and violation of trust cases. Social Sciences 8(23), 1-17. Doi:10.3390/socsci8010023.

Seligson, M. A. (2006). The measurement and impact of corruption victimization: Survey evidence from Latin America. World Development, 34(2), 381-404. DOI:10.1016/j.worlddev.2005.03.012.

Shapiro, S. P. (1980). Thinking about white-collar crime: Matters of conceptualization and research. Washington, D. C.: U.S. Department of Justice, National Institute of Justice.

Shapiro, S. P. (1990). Collaring the Crime, not the Criminal: Reconsidering the Concept of White Collar Crime. American Sociological Review, 55(3), 346-365.

Shumway, R. H. y Stoffer, D. S. (2011). Time Series Analysis and its Applications. With R Examples. Third Edition. New York: Springer.

Sutherland, E. H. (1940). White-collar criminality. American Sociological Review, 5(1), 1-12.

Transparency International (2017). People and Corruption: Latin America and the Caribbean – Global Corruption Barometer. Retrieved from https://www.transparency.org/whatwedo/publications.

Transparency International (2019). Corruption Perceptions Index 2018. Retrieved from https://www.transparency.org/whatwedo/publication/corruption_perceptions_index_2018.

Wagenmakers, E. J. y Farrell, S. (2004). AIC model selection using Akaike weights. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 11(1), 192–196.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.1234/rpcs1120205567

Enlaces refback

  • No hay ningún enlace refback.


Estadísticas
Visitas al Resumen:405
PDF-DESCARGA:439


Revista Paraguay desde las Ciencias Sociales

ISSN 2314-1638

Grupo de Estudios Sociales sobre Paraguay (GESP), Instituto de Estudios de América Latina y el Caribe, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de Buenos Aires