Delitos de cuello blanco en Paraguay: Evidencias empíricas y predicción

Andreas Schneider

Resumen


Este artículo contribuye a la literatura de delitos de cuello blanco y a sensibilizar a la Fiscalía General, Poder Judicial, Ministerio de Justicia y Defensoría analizando estos delitos con un único set de datos mensuales agregados. La serie temporal incluye incidentes desde 2000 a 2018. Además, se presenta un modelo ARIMA para modelar el proceso de generación de datos con la intención de predecir el siguiente año en la serie. Los hallazgos muestran que el crimen de cuello blanco ha aumentado más del 236% y el índice subió a 830 puntos, respectivamente, con un pico en el 2015. El fraude y la lesión de confianza contribuyen a más del 91% del total de los incidentes. Una predicción para el 2019 indica un incremento de 11,15% en comparación con el año anterior. 

Palabras clave


Delitos de cuello blanco, Paraguay, Modelos ARIMA, predicción

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Revista Paraguay desde las Ciencias Sociales

ISSN 2314-1638

Grupo de Estudios Sociales sobre Paraguay (GESP), Instituto de Estudios de América Latina y el Caribe, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de Buenos Aires