Introduction

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has profoundly influenced Israel’s political, social, and cultural identity. Since the establishment of the State of Israel, national security concerns have been a top priority due to cycles of violence, war, and diplomatic instability that characterize its reality. As a result, the Israeli population has continuously faced existential threats, shaping a political identity marked by a sense of danger and the need for effective responses. In this context, crisis events represent not only immediate challenges but also drivers of long-term social and political change (Canetti et al., 2013).

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has shaped not only Israel’s political landscape but presumably also the identities of its immigrant populations, particularly Argentine immigrants, who navigate complex intersections between national security concerns and evolving political ideologies. Recent events, such as Hamas’s attack in October 2023, have reignited deep fears within the Israeli population, further exacerbating the current situation. This scenario offers a particularly relevant opportunity to investigate how prolonged crises affect the political identities of different population sectors, including immigrants. The persistent environment of conflict and increasing polarization allow for an analysis of how political beliefs evolve in response to threats and violence.

Unlike many other political crises, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is distinguished by its duration and by the existential threat it poses, providing a unique context to study changes in political identity under prolonged threats. While other contexts of political threat, such as terrorism or economic instability, may involve brief or intermittent stressors, the Israeli context, particularly in light of events such as Hamas’s October 2023 attack, offers a distinct case to study changes in political identity in response to ongoing existential threats.

At a theoretical level, it has been observed that traumatic events and prolonged crises can generate profound changes in political identities. In situations of constant threat, such as those faced by the Israeli population, authoritarian ideologies, which emphasize control and discipline, often become particularly attractive (Getmansky & Zeitzoff, 2014). Several studies suggest that fear and insecurity can drive people to adopt more rigid beliefs and to seek clear and direct solutions, thereby reinforcing authoritarianism (Berntsen & Rubin, 2006; Stephan & Stephan, 2017). However, the degree and direction of these changes may vary, as some individuals may shift toward more progressive or fluctuating positions in search of alternative sources of stability.

Centrality of the event and Changes in Political Identity

This research is based on theoretical frameworks that explore how traumatic events and prolonged crises influence political identities. In particular, it emphasizes Event Centrality propose (Berntsen & Rubin, 2006), which posits that significant events, such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, become fundamental reference points in people’s lives, profoundly influencing their political beliefs. According to this approach, individuals integrate these events into their personal narratives, thus shaping their worldview and ideological orientation.

In addition to Event Centrality propose, concepts such as Social Dominance Orientation (Pratto et al., 1994) and Right-Wing Authoritarianism (Altemeyer, 1981) are instrumental for understanding responses to crises.

Social Dominance Orientation and Changes in Political Identity

Social Dominance Orientation (SDO), as defined by Pratto et al. (1994), refers to the preference of certain individuals for hierarchical social structures, where a dominant group maintains control over others. People with high levels of SDO tend to reject intergroup equality and have more exclusive attitudes towards minorities and out-groups, such as immigrants.

A study by Panno et al. (2018) revealed a negative relationship between SDO and happiness: individuals with high levels of SDO tend to be less happy. Additionally, the same study found that individuals with higher levels of happiness exhibited more favorable attitudes towards immigrants, reinforcing the idea that emotional well-being can facilitate more prosocial behaviors. Based on these findings, it is reasonable to assume that crisis situations, such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, lead to increased stress and decreased overall well-being, which could contribute to the strengthening of SDO.

Given that prolonged crises are defined as high-stress situations, generating tensions and feelings of threat, individuals with high levels of SDO could resort to more exclusive and aggressive attitudes towards out-groups in search of a 'scapegoat' (Girard, 2006) for the situation of discomfort. In this sense, chronic stress derived from conflict could be linked to an increase in SDO, by exacerbating the need to maintain hierarchies that ensure the dominance of the in-group.

Right-Wing Authoritarianism and Changes in Political Identity

Right-Wing Authoritarianism (RWA), as conceptualized by Altemeyer (1981), refers to a socio-political disposition characterized by submission to authorities perceived as legitimate, aggression toward those seen as threats to social order, and adherence to conventionalism. In broad terms, it captures a preference for order, discipline, and social control when situations are perceived as chaotic or dangerous.

In this study, RWA is included because empirical evidence suggests that high exposure to traumatic events can be associated with an average shift toward more conservative positions. Specifically, Bonanno and Jost (2006) observed a “conservative shift” among survivors with high exposure to the September 11 attacks, suggesting that intense experiences of threat may foster changes in political orientations and self-identifications aligned with order and security.

Together, these frameworks suggest that during crises, individuals with high levels of these orientations tend to support authoritarian leaders and policies that reinforce social control.

Following this line of reasoning, a key study central to our work is the analysis by Cuello, Dzavsarov, and Paz (2020), which examines how Social Dominance Orientation (SDO) and Right-Wing Authoritarianism (RWA) influenced the political stances of Argentine immigrants in Israel during the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors show that, rather than weakening, these ideologies intensified, pushing people toward more conservative and authoritarian positions. The study showed that participants with high SDO scores were more likely to support liberal-capitalist policies and oppose egalitarian welfare systems. Similarly, individuals with high RWA scores, characterized by submission to authority and adherence to norms, favored strong leadership and increased police control.

These findings are particularly useful for contextualizing our study, as they reinforce (contrary to the authors’ original hypothesis) that in prolonged crisis situations such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, people tend to adopt more rigid and authoritarian political beliefs due to constantly perceived threats.

Our hypothesis, therefore, proposes that prolonged crisis events, such as the Israeli- Palestinian conflict, significantly influence the political identity of Argentine immigrants over the age of 18 residing in Israel. It is expected that event centrality, the degree to which the conflict becomes a key reference point in people’s lives, will mediate changes in political beliefs. Particularly, given the variables under consideration, we expect Centrality of Events to be positively correlated with right-wing (RWA) authoritarianism and social dominance orientation (SDO).

General Objective

The objective of this study is to examine the pattern of correlations between Political Identity, Event Centrality, Right-Wing Authoritarianism (RWA), and Social Dominance Orientation (SDO) in argentinian migrants over the age of 18 residing in Israel.

Method

The research adopted a quantitative approach, employing self-administered surveys distributed to Argentine immigrants over the age of 18 residing in Israel. The study followed a cross-sectional design, aiming to measure the influence of independent variables on changes in political identity.

Participants

A total of 26 Argentine Jewish immigrants living in Israel participated in the study. Eligibility criteria included being 18 years of age or older and having resided in Israel for at least one year. Participants were recruited through online networks and community-based institutions. The average age was 55.8 years (SD = 17.9), with 57.7% identifying as male and 42.3% as female.

Measures

Both independent and dependent variables will be measured using Likert-type scales in the survey, which will allow for the assessment of the intensity of participants' attitudes and perceptions.

Changes in Political Identity (CPI). Developed for this study to capture recent shifts in ideological orientation and context‑relevant attitudes in Israel. It comprises three sub‑dimensions: (a) general values (trust in institutions; military vs. diplomatic solutions), (b) government policies/role of the state (state intervention; immigration policies; an ordinal indicator of the direction and magnitude of ideological shift: left to right, incl. no change), and (c) parties/personalities (support for left‑ and right‑leaning figures). Responses use a five‑point Likert format; the shift item has five categories. Examples: “My trust in Israeli institutions has decreased…”, “I support military over diplomatic solutions…”, “It is possible to trust Palestinians” (reverse‑keyed), “My support for … has increased.

Centrality of Events (CES): The CES is a 7-item self-report instrument that assesses the extent to which a specific event is integrated into one’s identity and life story (e.g., “I feel that this event has become part of my identity”) (Berntsen & Rubin, 2006). In this study, participants were instructed to consider the Israeli–Palestinian conflict as the focal event. Items were rated on a five-point Likert scale ranging from 1 = “totally disagree” to 5 = “totally agree.

Right-Wing Authoritarianism (RWA): The revised short version of the Right-Wing Authoritarianism (RWA) scale measures authoritarian attitudes. Responses are given on a 1 (“very negative”) to 7 (“very positive”) scale. The score is computed as the unweighted mean of the items, reverse-coding the counterbalanced items before averaging. Higher scores indicate greater authoritarianism. (Zakrisson, 2005; Altemeyer 1981).

Social Dominance Orientation (SDO): A measure capturing a general preference for intergroup hierarchy and group‑based inequality versus an orientation toward intergroup equality. Statements include wording that affirms group superiority (e.g., “Some groups of people are simply not the equals of others”) and reverse‑keyed egalitarian statements (e.g., “We should try to treat one another as equals as much as possible”). Responses use an evaluation continuum from 1 (very negative) to 7 (very positive), and the score is the mean after reverse‑coding the pro‑equality statements, such that higher values indicate stronger social‑dominance orientation (Pratto, Sidanius, Stallworth, & Malle, 1994).

Data Analysis

All statistical analyses were conducted using IBM SPSS Statistics version 29. Given the limited sample size (N = 26), we applied bootstrap resampling techniques to enhance the reliability of the parameter estimates. Bootstrapping is a non-parametric method that involves generating multiple resamples (in this case, 1,000) from the original dataset to create more robust confidence intervals and significance values, especially under small-sample conditions. Descriptive statistics (mean, standard deviation, and frequencies) were calculated for the main study variables. We used Pearson’s correlations to explore the associations between variables. All correlation coefficients and p-values were obtained using bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals to ensure more stable estimations.

Results

A correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relationships between Changes in Political Identity (CPI) and Right-Wing Authoritarianism (RWA), Social Dominance Orientation (SDO), and Event Centrality (CES). The results of this analysis in our sample indicate that, although some trends are observed, the correlations are weak and did not reach statistical significance at the established confidence level for any of the variables (see Table 1).

Consequently, the present data do not support solid inferences about these associations nor a clear shift toward more conservative or authoritarian positions in this group. This lack of significance could be attributed, in part, to the limited sample size (N = 26), which restricts the ability to detect small or moderate effects, and is consistent with the estimation strategy described there—95% CI by bootstrap (1,000 resamplings) under a small N—which produces wide intervals and therefore imprecise estimates and limited power to detect small effects.

Discussion

The results of this study reveal a pattern of interesting, though inconclusive, trends regarding the impact of prolonged crises on the political identity of Argentine immigrants in Israel. From the analysis, no robust associations emerged between event centrality and changes in political identity, showing weak correlations lacking statistical significance. As for polarization, the results also did not yield clear evidence of an intensification or a collective shift toward the extremes of the political spectrum.

Although the Israeli–Palestinian conflict is a highly salient geopolitical event, the absence of significant correlations in this study suggests that its perceived centrality may not translate directly into measurable changes in political identity among Argentine immigrants. One possible explanation is that participants’ political identities are shaped more strongly by long-standing sociopolitical frameworks from their country of origin than by distant international conflicts, even when emotionally charged. Additionally, the heterogeneity of individual experiences, media exposure, and personal relevance of the conflict may have diluted any uniform association between event centrality and political identity. These findings highlight the importance of considering contextual, cultural, and temporal factors when examining how global events influence identity processes in migrant populations.

This study contributes a nuanced perspective on the formation of political identity in contexts of prolonged conflict. The results indicate that, for the community of Argentine immigrants in Israel, exposure to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict has not generated a massive directional shift toward authoritarianism nor a collective radical polarization. Therefore, the main contribution of this work is to shift the question from whether the conflict changes political identity to under what conditions and for whom it does so. Future research with longitudinal designs will be in a position to capture these individual trajectories, thereby disentangling the complex interaction among the variables analyzed.

Nevertheless, although the results do not significantly confirm the proposed objectives, they provide indications of how processes of collective threat and displacement may affect the configuration of political identity. This, in part, contributes, in an exploratory manner, to understanding the interaction between event centrality, authoritarian attitudes, and system justification when we analyze migrant populations.

Acknowledgments

We would like to express our deepest gratitude to Joaquín González, Luna Garat, Guido Rellán, and Eugenia Tripi, students of Sociology at the University of Buenos Aires, Faculty of Social Sciences, for their outstanding work in the preliminary research on the topic of "Attitudes Towards the Israeli-Palestinian War." During the initial stages of this project, their dedication helped identify key theoretical approaches and provided preliminary analyses that significantly enriched our understanding of the subject.

Their work not only offered a solid foundation for the subsequent development of this article but also opened new lines of inquiry that proved highly valuable in structuring the objectives and hypotheses of our research. Although they were unable to continue collaborating throughout the year due to academic and personal commitments, their contribution was essential in shaping the reflections and findings presented here. For this, we deeply recognize and value their input in the development of this work.

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Información adicional

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